Nifty in Gridlock: Bulls and Bears Lock Horns at Resistance, Says Dhupesh Dhameja of SAMCO Securities

Mumbai: Nifty continues to display signs of hesitation at elevated levels, repeatedly getting knocked back from crucial resistance zones and producing intraday fake-outs, indicating a period of consolidation amid fading momentum. The index concluded the session with a marginal uptick of 0.05% (12.50 points), settling at 24,346.70. This marks the seventh consecutive session where Nifty has been locked in a choppy range, failing to conquer overhead resistances, underscoring persistent supply pressure and an undercurrent of caution in the broader market mood.

Despite sporadic buying spurts and today’s deceptive intraday move, the index’s failure to sustain gains at higher levels reflects active resistance from bears and a tendency for profit booking at elevated bands. This ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears suggests that the market has entered a time-wise consolidation phase, provided the index manages to hold above its key support area. Over the past week, Nifty has traded within a defined channel between 23,800 and 24,450—an important band likely to dictate the forthcoming trend.

Technically, the diminishing momentum at the higher levels is becoming a concern, especially as the index struggles to clear the critical 24,500 hurdle. However, the fact that prices continue to hover above the 10-day EMA indicates that the short-term structure remains neutral to slightly cautious. Adding to the narrative is the daily chart that reveals a pattern resembling a Shooting Star candlestick, suggesting selling pressure at the top. A downside confirmation here could trigger sharper profit-booking. Nevertheless, the broader structure seems like a market is digesting its recent gains, moving sideways, without establishing a strong trend.

The 24,400–24,500 zone continues to act as a tough barrier and may cap rallies in the near term. A solid move above this ceiling could unleash a wave of bullish activity and short-covering. From a momentum standpoint, the daily RSI remains marginally above 60 but is flashing signs of negative divergence, which reinforces the cautious undertone. A breakout above 24,500 could open up space for a quick rally toward 25,000, whereas a breach below the 24,200 mark could drag the index back toward the 23,900–24,000 region.

Options Market Pulse:
Options data suggests a neutral-to-cautious tone. While call writers have increased their hold at higher strikes, the absence of strong bullish footprints hints at limited confidence. The 24,500 call strike holds a hefty open interest of 79.09 lakh contracts, making it a formidable short-term ceiling. On the contrary, the 24,000 put strike has attracted significant writing with 69.44 lakh contracts, solidifying it as a critical near-term support level. Rising open interest in the 24,400–24,500 band reinforces the presence of stiff resistance.

The co-existence of strong positioning from both bulls and bears further confirms a classic range-bound market. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) slid from 0.71 to 0.68, highlighting a tilt toward defensive strategies as selling pressure builds. Max Pain remains steady at 24,350, reflecting an ongoing balance without a decisive breakout.

Volatility Snapshot:

India VIX inched up 0.19% to 18.25, signaling a slight rise in implied volatility. With geopolitical uncertainties and macroeconomic concerns looming, traders should be prepared for sharp intraday swings. The VIX holding above the psychological 15-level reflects a heightened risk environment, warranting tactical trading and risk-managed positioning in the near term.

Market Outlook:
Nifty continues to exhibit sideways movement laced with caution as stiff resistance near higher band stalls bullish momentum and daily candlestick patterns reflect rejection from upper levels. The index seems to be caught in a balance-of-power scenario, with prices consolidating just below key resistance while respecting crucial supports. As long as the index stays above the 24,000–23,900 zone, the broader trend remains constructive. However, a decisive move above the 24,500 mark is essential to trigger a fresh wave of bullish activity targeting 25,000. On the flip side, a breach below 24,200 could invite swift selling pressure, dragging the index toward the lower end of the current range. The present consolidation phase appears to be a preparatory base for the next meaningful directional move, contingent on a breakout.

Bank Nifty stuck in limbo; Resistance proves

Stubborn, time-based consolidation likely

Index View:
Nifty Bank index continued to wrestle with overhead hurdles on the charts, once again failing to make a meaningful breakout above its critical resistance band, hinting at a prolonged phase of time-wise congestion. The index wrapped up the session with a minor uptick of 0.05% (28.20 points), settling at 55,115.35. Despite minor attempts to lift, this marks the ninth straight session where the index has been stuck in a narrow range, unable to convincingly breach either side of the bracket — a clear reflection of steady profit-booking at elevated zones and a lingering cautious tone among market players. Every time the index tries to climb higher, it gets hammered back down showing that bears aren’t letting go of the resistance zone easily. Even though the undertone remains mildly constructive, it’s clear we’re in a “no man’s land” until the price decides which way it wants to go.

Both, the  bulls and the bears are actively placing their bets near critical levels, pushing the index into a sideways coil, assuming it continues to protect its crucial base levels. Technically, Bank Nifty has been trading in a boxed zone between 54,000 and 56,000 recently. This channel is now acting like a pressure cooker, ready to pop — but only once a breakout/breakdown happens. Price has continuously hit a ceiling around the 55,800–56,000 range, hinting that bullish power is waning for now.

On the flipside, holding above the 10-day EMA still keeps the broader tone neutral to range bound. Notably, a Shooting Star candle has shown up on the daily chart — a hint that sellers might be warming up for some more action. But the structure still lacks a decisive trend, making this a classic case of “wait and watch.” If the index manages a firm close above the 56,000 wall, we might see a sharp spike triggered by short-covering and fresh longs. But a fall under the 55,000 floor could spark a drift toward the 54,300–54,500 pocket.

The RSI indicator is hovering a little above 65, showing signs of stress and signs of exhaustion, cautioning traders against overcommitting on the long side.

Options Data Pulse:
Derivatives data suggests a tug-of-war is underway. Call writers seem to be gaining an edge, especially on higher levels, making the bullish side look a bit hesitant. The 55,500 strike has built up a hefty open interest of 10.74 lakh contracts, marking it as a near-impenetrable roof for now. Meanwhile, solid put writing around the 55,000 mark (9.53 lakh contracts) has cemented this level as a key short-term base. Action in the 55,700–56,000 area signals the bears are parking themselves aggressively at the top. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) holds steady at 0.90, implying some equilibrium — but leaning slightly toward the defensive camp. Max Pain remains static at 54,500, suggesting that the market could drift without much directional clarity unless a catalyst emerges.

Broad Market Takeaway:
Bank Nifty seems trapped in a push-pull between the bulls and the bears, with price unable to move beyond resistance yet also refusing to break below key supports. As long as the index floats above 54,000–54,300, the medium-term picture remains broadly positive. But for the market to move convincingly higher, bulls must conquer the 56,000 hurdle, only then, can the index sprint toward 56,500 or beyond. On the flip side, any slip below 55,000 could tilt the scales in favor of the bears, triggering a fast decline toward 54,300 levels. With no clear leadership from either side and rising volatility, it looks like Nifty Bank is quietly preparing for its next big directional swing, traders just need to be patient and nimble till that break happens.