Stock Market Outlook: Nifty shows signs of fatigue,  Likely to remain range-bound going ahead

 Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities, Nifty index halted its seven-session winning streak, slipping 0.34% lower (-82.25 points) to close at 24,246.70, delivering a subdued performance on the monthly expiry day. Despite losing steam at higher levels, the index managed to settle just above its three-month peak. Although the intraday sentiment remained mild, bulls failed to drive a meaningful upside continuation. With a sharp rally already behind it, the index now appears to be entering a time-wise corrective phase. Broadly, the Nifty has carved out a defined range between 24,500 and 24,000, which could serve as a critical decision zone in the coming sessions.

Technically, the strong upward move seems to have hit a pause, signaling the onset of a likely sideways consolidation in the near term. Adding to this, an inside bar candlestick formation has materialized on the daily chart, underscoring that a key support-resistance zone has now taken shape. Encouragingly, the index continues to hover above the 23,900–24,000 breakout zone, successfully flipping a previous resistance area into a robust support base. Meanwhile, the upper end of the current range, 24,400–24,500, now acts as a vital resistance cluster. A clean move beyond this range could potentially ignite a fresh bullish leg.

From a momentum perspective, the Daily RSI continues to float above the 60 mark, signaling that underlying strength remains intact. However, the hourly chart reveals negative divergence, flashing early signs of exhaustion and hinting at possible short-term fatigue. Immediate resistance lies in the 24,400–24,500 zone, a known supply region. A breakout above this could trigger short-covering and renewed buying interest. Conversely, the 23,900–24,000 band remains the must-hold support, and losing this base could tilt sentiment in favour of the bears.

Options Market Pulse: The derivatives setup is starting to reflect a shift in sentiment from aggressive bullishness to a more cautious tone. Call writers have stepped up their activity, outpacing put writers, suggesting the first signs of bearish bets building. Substantial open interest at the 24,500 strike (25.22 lakh contracts) marks it as a short-term ceiling, while strong put writing at the 24,000 strike (29.90 lakh contracts) underpins solid support just beneath the current market level. This puts the 24,400–24,500 zone under the spotlight as a crucial resistance band. Interestingly, simultaneous addition of both calls and puts hints at a neutral-to-rangebound outlook in the short run. Meanwhile, the Put-Call Ratio has eased to 0.93 from 1.04, highlighting a mild shift in sentiment. The Max Pain remains centred at 24,100, implying that traders are bracing for sideways action just under current levels, with overhead resistance weighing on sentiment.

Volatility Snapshot: India VIX edged higher by 1.82% to 16.25, indicating a rise in uncertainty—primarily due to global factors—but still within the threshold where sharp intraday swings are

feasible. With VIX staying above the key psychological level of 15, traders are advised to remain nimble as sudden market flips can’t be ruled out.

Market Viewpoint: Nifty’s inability to extend its rally points to an emerging consolidation phase, especially after the recent overstretched upmove. While the broader trend structure remains Bullish, short-term indicators—particularly the negative divergence on momentum charts—are raising caution flags. A strong close above 24,400 would indicate a likely continuation of the rally, unlocking potential up to 24,500. However, holding the 23,900–24,000 support zone is essential to maintain the bullish bias.

For now, the market tone remains constructive but guarded. As long as Nifty oscillates within 23,900–24,500, no clear directional trend is expected. A breakout above resistance could re-energize bulls, while a breach below key support may trigger mild profit-taking towards 23,700. Given the vertical rise seen in previous sessions, the market seems poised for a healthy pause before the next directional push emerges.

Nifty Bank slips as bears tighten grip; 54,700 key to trend stability

Nifty Bank index extended its corrective streak, continuing to face selling pressure at elevated levels. It ended the session down by 0.30% (-168.65 points), closing at 55,201.40, after a tepid session. Although the index lost steam at higher zones, it managed to cling above the key psychological support level of 55,000. Despite a range-bound intraday performance, the index lacked any substantial bullish conviction. After a steep uptrend, the current phase appears to be leaning towards a time-wise correction.

Technically, the index seems to be entering a cool-off zone, as it defines a broad range between 56,000–54,500, which will be crucial in deciding the next directional move. A bearish engulfing candlestick has clearly formed on the daily chart, confirming a short-term trend reversal, and signaling that profit-booking could dominate unless bulls regain strength above 56,000. That level now acts as a crucial barrier for any upside revival. Importantly, the index continues to hold above the 54,200–54,700 gap zone, which remains an essential bullish base. On the upside, the 56,000–56,100 zone has now turned into a major supply area, and a breakout above this could lead to a sharp rally.

In terms of momentum, the daily RSI continues to hover above the 70 mark, reflecting persistent bullish strength. However, the overextended nature of the recent upmove suggests near-term exhaustion. The immediate obstacle lies in the 56,000–56,200 region, which has historically acted as a supply zone. A breakout here could trigger short-covering and renewed buying interest. Conversely, if the index breaks down below the 54,700–54,500 range, it could trigger further downside pressure, making this a critical support zone to watch in the sessions ahead.

Options Market Snapshot: The derivatives landscape continues to show signs of cautious optimism. Despite a weakening technical setup, put writers are holding their ground, establishing firm support at the 55,000 strike with 7.94 lakh contracts. On the flip side, call writers have aggressively added positions at the 55,500 strike (7.76 lakh OI), effectively capping the immediate upside potential. This makes the 55,500–56,000 range a near-term resistance belt. Early signs of buildup at higher strikes by call writers hint at nervousness and a defensive stance among participants. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has risen from 1.00 to 1.12, reflecting a mild increase in bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, Max Pain remains centred at 55,200, suggesting that the market is anticipating equilibrium near current levels despite overhead supply risks.

Market Outlook: The inability of Nifty Bank to sustain higher ground, despite a strong start, along with the appearance of a bearish candlestick reversal, reinforces the need for near-term caution. The index is still trading comfortably above its 10-day EMA, but intraday RSI divergence is flashing warning signals. A consolidation phase or a mild pullback appears likely before any strong directional move resumes. For bulls to maintain dominance, it’s vital that the index holds above the 54,700–54,300 zone. A decisive move above 56,100–56,200 could unlock the next leg higher, while a drop below 54,700 could invite fresh profit-booking towards 54,300. Overall, the medium-term trend remains constructively bullish, but signs of momentum fatigue suggest the index may pause before launching into its next move.

Technical Analysis

Market at Crossroads: Nifty Remains Calm, Nifty Bank faces Risk of Retest

Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities, Nifty halted its winning streak and ended the session at 24,246.70, shedding 0.34%. A Doji candle was formed on the daily chart, reflecting indecision. The index oscillated within a narrow range with lower momentum, as the hourly chart shows.However, Nifty is holding steady around the 24,240 level, which has acted as intermediate support over the past two sessions. The primary trend remains positive, with the index trading near the upper band of the Donchian Channel, indicating underlying strength.India VIX remains subdued, hovering above the 16 mark. A surge above 18 could trigger higher volatility, while a drop below 15 would likely strengthen bullish sentiment. The trend currently appears mixed.The outlook remains optimistic as long as Nifty holds above 24,070 on a closing basis. A decisive move above 24,360 could open the door for further upside, whereas failure to sustain may result in a consolidation phase.

Nifty Bank ended the session at 55,201.40, slipping 0.30%, and formed a Gravestone Doji on the daily chart, a potential sign of reversal or indecision at higher levels. On the hourly chart, the index reflects a weakening trend with a predominance of red candles, signalling short-term bearish pressure. A breach below the 55,100 mark could open the path toward 54,500, a level that previously acted as resistance and may now function as support.

The index must decisively surpass the 56,100 resistance level. The momentum indicators such as the daily RSI and MACD show cooling off signal, suggesting reduced bullish strength. However, the broader outlook remains constructive as long as the 54,400 to 54,500 zone holds on a closing basis. The consolidation seems likely in the sessions ahead.